Curioso's Homepage
The best to do is to do the best

Journals

<<Previous 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Next >>

Monday,Nov 23 2009, 12:27:25 PMOn the occasion of the election of EU heads

  

European Leadership: a"director general" or a "monarch" without thrown?! 

Election of Herman Van Rompuy, Belgian Prime minister and Lady Ashton, an ordinary European commissioner for the , otherwise , supposedly heavy posts as, EU's President and Rep for the foreign affairs, is more reminding us of the old question : " what the European Union really is?" rather than  " who its leaders are?"   

Many critics have been demonstrating their disappointments based on their own expectations. In real terms , European Union is viewed by two different , sometimes controversial views. One , before ratification of the EU's constitution which later, was trimmed as Lisbon treaty was aimed at creating a new superstate of Europe ,, undermining the roles of the national states. Internationally however, this superpower was due to confront the pressures of two giant rivals of the today ,, the US ( with decreasing power but still a super power) and the other China and the so called: " emerging new markets and economies". apparently a superstate cant do the job  while an international organization can. 

 So, the idea of such an evolution was indeed a movement toward securing Europeans power position in the world of today. The same idea that has been very much strange and unfamiliar to the European nationalism. Beside,  undermining a huge gap between the Europeans and Europeans.

Simple fact of being the cradle of two world wars and many nationalistic conflicts , not to mention the former Yugoslavia and additional Balkan tensions on the Eastern front in our time , together with the new front lines in the Middle East and Asia,  justifies the nationalistic decision making's overhand in the European Union , such as electing Internationally gray and unknown president and foreign minister. There are even doubts about using the title of "minister" for Lady Ashton , because there are sensitivities in that would be interpreted as a post united Europe's minister for foreign affairs. In the case of the very nice and gentle Mr Rompuy. I am sure they could not run away from the responsibility of electing a president according to the Lisbon agreement, otherwise they might as well call him " General director " or the chairman of the committee of Europe , instead of  just "president".       

This is exactly what I intend to deal with in these lines. There is simply no " United Europe" as if you might make a parallel with: United States ( States of the Union with federal government , military and foreign policy) or Republic of China , gathered of huge amount of states ( some even with autonomy ) , but highly centralized in a central government. 

Both of the cases above, disregard of the fact that they contain many states ( or provinces if you like  ), are being called as one and same state. the United States is making one state and the same goes for China. Their rivalries and hostile wars to keep the states as they are today , are already passed history,while Europe is still in the era of its nationalism.

The complexity of European's national states' sovereignty question ,, is not a new story , as mentioned earlier ,, there have been wars emphasizing their national and local interests and cultural behaviors. 

But this is a unity after all? isn't it?!         

Simultaneously however , the establishment of European Union was aimed as resolving new problems facing this unity which I rather to call it an "international organization" than a "superstate". 

  In view of the fact of International organization's survival struggle to face new challenges, European Union finds its real meaning , while in the shadow of some ideal thinking of the" unity of Europe" it is not even as united as it should be to be labeled as an international organization. By this term even United Nation has more sense of unity in itself than the EU. However the question is whether it is necessary to be a superstate to face European challenges?!

In the case of Europe with diversities of super-economies such as German and France on the one hand and weak , still developing ones such as Greece and the new joined Ex-Eastern ones such as Hungary,check Republic , Romania and others, finding an overall solution for elected head of unity posts , if not impossible but is next to a nightmare.

In an organization , you might even chose the least important member states representatives to fill the seat , without the authority and sovereignty of the giant members gets violated. In a superstate, if such an election would be possible after all,, it will lead to a range of military conflicts front on the one hand and revolutions( even in the shape of extensive street riots) on the other ,, with the high eventuality of division of the unity at the end of the day.

In a superstate, the tax purposeful policies will work for the whole state according to the constitution, while in an international organization, if any common taxation policies , it would work for all members evenly with no possible sanctions at all. In Europe we have, not even hyper rich classes ,,, but even hyper rich nations , opposing the extreme poor classes and regions.Once in the history , if we might get a bit nostalgic ,, with a hypothetical level of dis-balance between the first millenniums nation states in Europe , such unity would be plausible by the help of extensive prolonged bloodshed and wars. In the case of Europe the bloodshed were there , but a balance of military power we present as well. The result if balance of power in today's Europe that we are witnessing today.       

What is the joint interests of these two categories of the people to let them elect " powerful "and "meaningful" presidencies and representative for the foreign affairs?! Obviously , either the mighty economies should use all the tricks to evade from the constitution's rules , or they should empty the content of these posts of its real meaning , in order not to give it a "veto" position, all because this post might someday get occupied by the representatives of the poor states.This is dangerous not only for Europe , but for Europe's international commitments!

In addition,, who will deal with an Romanian president ( who incidentally , according to the super-state's constitution is a real head of a real state, while Germany and France were forced to keep their voice down until his presidency is over?

Add to this the diversity of the economies of Europe even among the mighty nations , such as French agricultural sector's representatives on the "seat of power" opposed by the German heavy industrial minded magnates,,, the clashes of vital interests would create a new international war , instead of any unity at all.                                            

Election of Gray Characters such as Van  Rompuy and baroness Ashton by above mentioned criteria was not only wise , but necessary as well because the founders of the European Union well aware of these controversies in the context of this union , intended to bridge over the lop holes that the unity is suffering from , instead of creating an ideal symbol of unity. This is a practical decision which was well managed by the wise guys to fill insignificant posts with still less significant bureaucratic gray heads. An unpopular , somewhat humiliating, but very practical and wise decision. 

But the main question still remains, for how long this mercantile, opportunistic style of bridging over the loop holes, instead of making the real changes will work? All the signs of the present Europe shows the needs of real "changes",,, simply because an international Organization needs to change to survive after all.      

 cyrusvadani@msn.com    

    Stockholm Sweden

All the rights of this article are reserved. 

 Tag : Journals, My | 32 Views | Post Comments | Share with Friends | Recommend

Friday,Nov 13 2009, 12:36:46 PMDaily Economic Calender

Demo|Live|Free Practice 
Daily Newsletter: 13/11/2009 
By Elizabeth Gregory - ACM Advanced Currency Markets, Geneva, Switzerland
Today's Economic Calendar:
 TIME (GMT)    EVENT  VALUE NAME   CONS.  
07:00    DE:GDP Flash Quarter over Quarter 0.7%  
    Year over Year -4.8%  
07:45    FR:CPI Month over Month 0.1%  
    Year over Year -0.2%  
07:45    FR:GDP Flash Quarter over Quarter 0.6%  
    Year over Year -1.9%  
09:00    IT:GDP Quarter over Quarter 0.8%  
    Year over Year -4.5%  
10:00    EMU:GDP Flash Quarter over Quarter 0.5%  
    Year over Year 0%  
13:30    US:Import and Export Prices Import Prices - M/M change 0%  
    Export Prices - M/M change 0%  
    Import Prices - Y/Y change 0%  
    Export Prices - Y/Y change 0%  
13:30    US:International Trade Trade Balance Level $-32.5B  
13:30    CA:Merchandise Trade Level -1.6B  
14:55    US:Consumer Sentiment Sentiment Index - Level 71  
15:30    US:EIA Natural Gas Report Weekly Change 0bcf  

Full week Economic Calendar        

Markets Await Eurozone Q3 GDP After A Week Of Consolidation
News and Events:
It has been a week of consolidation and reflection for FX markets as a minimalist data calendar has allowed the risk-asset rally to catch its breath from the drama of the week prior.

Current chatter is focused on the likelihood of Chinese Yuan appreciation after finance ministers from APEC (Asia Pacific Economic Co-operation) countries this week endorsed “market oriented exchange rates that reflect economic fundamentals”. Yet for all the ensuing praise and support from US officials, the continued aversion to creating a serious confrontation with China over its USD peg means that the rhetoric reflects very little material change in circumstances.

It seems the only potentially market-moving event left for this week will be today’s advance Q3 GDP reading from the Eurozone where markets are looking for a 0.5% expansion QoQ after the -0.2% contraction in Q2.

Read Today's Key Issues and The Risk Today        



Resistance and Support:
EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY USDCHF
1.5100 1.7400 93.50 1.0290
1.5063 1.7041 92.50 1.0200
1.5046 1.6900 90.75 1.0170
1.4885 1.6675 89.80 1.0145
1.4910 1.6400 89.20 1.0037
1.4810 1.6260 88.85 1.0000
1.4626 1.6200 88.00 0.9890
S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot

 Tag : calender, daily | 11 Views | Post Comments | Share with Friends | Recommend

Thursday,Oct 22 2009, 01:36:00 PMThe shift in international system to a new order..

 

Cyrus's Journals

The shift in international system to a new order, does "capitalism" allow it!?

 

The shift in international system from a Cold war basis to plenty centered based global system , has created a controversy which is deeply in contrast with its practical values.

Before the collapse of Soviet Empire, the world was unfairly divided into two blocks with all its irrational divisions and boundaries. The artificial blockades of commerce and international diplomacy were justified often by the cohesive impacts of the two world , two systems.    

Yet the boundaries were not only put on human inter-relationships depending on which side of the line one lived, but it created human disasters beyond any explanation at all. 

However one major attribute of that devil international system was , simplifying the definition of illegal and legal, illegitimate and legitimate depending again on which side of the line one lived. The system's collapse made every invaluable , valuables , every white to  black and every single black turned to be white in just one single moment of the collapse of the Berlin Wall in 1989 (1).    

 Life was supposed to be much easier since then,, but what really happened was the drastically increasing of the subsystems in the international affairs. Diplomacy was taken as hostage by the so called " Pirate States"(2) that still had problem to be recognized as the parts of the new international system , or better to say the new international Anarchism.    

The first attribute of this new system as mentioned before was pluralism in " power centers " round the world. The satellites of the former super powers became the new players as well ,, many states released by the dissolution of the Soviet Union became "military pirates" trying to enter the international underworld of military and weaponry black market to compensate the lost of their mandates and strengths. Many of them turned to be the new enterprising bodies for the New Ruling Class , reining over the new Russia even today. They appear even to have gained international legitimacy , mostly by their counterparts in the West, namely the Western Capitalism.

 On the other hand the new " Pirate States" that proved to be much less concerned about international system's prerequisites , took the piracy of foreign commerce in their own hands together with any possible international piracy , enabling them questing and later acquiring atomic weapons ( 3) to be able to continue with their subsystem piracy. Many of them still hide this self-satisfied indulging ideological mambo-jambo as their religious heritage, commanding them to act like pirates.  

The consequences for the heir of the old system? 

In this dramatic, anarchical break down of systems together with starting of the new semi systems of the world order , the role of the one and only super power remaining of the old system is not enviable at all. United States as the only power coming through the changes almost(4) without losing its attributions as a super power has challenges that must be dealt with , otherwise our world will demised in one or another irresponsible act of terror, ignited by this and that brain washed foot militia of wealthy oil income based piracy subsystem and blow off what ever in paradox with its approach of its whatever religion.                        

 But the dangers in front of our somewhat crippled " super power" is not only those in enmity with its systemic values , but even more dangerously those sharing its own values , the so called values of western capitalism. Since 1980s, international commerce was the only possible pathway between the still " civilized system world of international relations: and those under the steps of piracy. Many were killed after revolutions in the Third World ,, many were taken hostages ,, thousands of people were forced into refuge ,, without any chance to ever visit or inhabit on their old birthplaces,, hundreds of small and inconsiderable blasts killed people in the Commercial centers,, in the hearts of International Capitalism and elsewhere, however , still the ticker of the Capitalism and trade pulses. 

The new Financial Crisis however was a "gift of god" to review the corrupted rules of Capitalism which was eating the Western System Values from inside up,, and paving the way for the further international anarchism. Joining of China , India , Brazil , Russia to the whiter international commerce rules , was in fact a blessing for the new system to blossom in the "not haves" world in controversy to the Cold War , which monopolized and took the international commerce as a hostage into the hands of two super powers owning the most powerful atomic arsenals. 

Nevertheless the real challenge is still far from being solved. On the contrary , our world has just recently started to see the values of " restrictions" and "regulations" of the international commerce. The aim of this bold action will not only deprive the Capitalism's domestic enemies ,, disguised in descent international corporations , such as banks and financial institutions , but they will aim the pirate states as well, as its long term goal. 

The task however is not that easy, United States as President Obama well put it in its declaration of foreign policy speeches, it need every member of the Industrial and emerging economic powers active participation.         

  The crucial role of sanctions     

   A vital role which is played in this connection is accomplished by the "sanctions" either put by the international organizations charters ( like seventh chapter of the UN chapter) or individually forced by the Industrial World to make pirate sates obey the rules of the game. This also despite the fact that International Capitalism drives its own rules even against its own long term benefits , for its short term, short sited wealth maximizing and vertical integration rules of commerce. Sanctions will not be effective if the new rules to stop wealth maximizing based on the vertical integration and insider information games would be stopped or severely restricted. One of these magical cures for diminishing the pirate behavior is see and guarantee that international sanctions work.

 The next step is to demilitarize the newly gained atomic weapon centers that severely threatening the international peace and security. As the generator of all these illegal activities instigated by the motivations of gaining power and wealth, United States has to challenge the Inner corrupted commercial entities as much as the international bandits that has never shown any regret in destabilizing the world. If all these two elementary steps of regaining its systemic superiority being taken, then our world would move towards cooperation and coexistence in harmony. But the task is far from being done or even started.            

 cyrusvadani@msn.com

(1): In order to observe a chronological study of this event , browse the following link please   

http://andreas.com/berlin.html     

( 2) Islamic Republic of Iran , Pakistan and other Islamic states allegedly gained atomic powers to destabilize the world order. Persuaded by these so called "revolutionary" but riot nations as such the world order is deeply endangered through terrorist actions and so on.  

(3) Abdolghadir Khan the so called the "father of Islamic World's atomic bomb" has improved his personal role as acquiring source of the mass destruction weapons , but even Israel as the largest , most dangerously equipped source of unease in international relations could only be a few to name. the danger is the inspiration these states wake with the other pirate states to create and own mass destructive weapons. 

 (4) United States is the only survivor of the old system that is practically owning upper-hand in both systems, although its challenges in front of it undermines the privileges it had during the cold war , as well as those it might gain after the collapse of the Soviet Union. 

  Every right of this article belongs to the  writer : Cyrus Vahdany 

Demo|Live|Free Practice 
Daily Newsletter: 12/11/2009 
By Elizabeth Gregory - ACM Advanced Currency Markets, Geneva, Switzerland
Today's Economic Calendar:
 TIME (GMT)    EVENT  VALUE NAME   CONS.  
00:30    AU:Employment Level change -10000  
00:30    AU:Unemployment Rate Level 5.7%  
10:00    EMU:Industrial Production Month over Month 0.5%  
    Year over Year -14.1%  
12:00    US:MBA Purchase Applications Purchase Index - W/W Change 0%  
13:30    US:Jobless Claims New Claims - Level 512K  
    4-week Moving Average - Level 0K  
16:00    US:EIA Petroleum Status Report Crude oil inventories (weekly change) 0M barrels  
19:00    US:Treasury Budget Treasury Budget - Level $-150B  
21:30    US:Money Supply M2 Weekly Change $0B  

Full week Economic Calendar        

Gold Outperforms To Touch New Highs Above $1123
News and Events:
The flurry of rhetoric from policymakers in the past day seems to affirm that conditions conducive to continued USD-selling are likely to persist...All have echoed the same message that an early exit from stimulus could be severely disadvantageous, and that economies are still at a point where accommodative policies are required to support the early stages of recovery.

The BoE’s Inflation report seemed to present a more balanced review of the economy and left the door open to flexibility on further stimulus.

Gold has powered to new highs above $1123 and is by far outstripping all other asset classes in benefitting from USD-weakness. We should be wary however that this latest surge means prices have gained over 12% in the last month alone, and commodity markets are notoriously susceptible to so-called blow-out reversals when prices form an exaggerated spike before a crash.

Read Today's Key Issues and The Risk Today        



Resistance and Support:
EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY USDCHF
1.5100 1.7400 93.50 1.0290
1.5063 1.7041 92.50 1.0200
1.5046 1.6900 90.75 1.0132
1.4955 1.6575 89.80 1.0105
1.4910 1.6400 89.20 1.0037
1.4810 1.6260 88.85 1.0000
1.4626 1.6200 88.00 0.9890
S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot

 






 Tag : calender, JournalsDaily, My | 47 Views | Post Comments | Share with Friends | Recommend

Tuesday,Oct 20 2009, 05:26:02 PMDaily Economic Calender

Demo|Live|Free Practice 
Daily Newsletter: 20/10/2009 
By Elizabeth Gregory - ACM Advanced Currency Markets, Geneva, Switzerland
Today's Economic Calendar:
 TIME (GMT)    EVENT  VALUE NAME   CONS.  
06:00    DE:PPI Month over Month -0.4%  
    Year over Year -7.2%  
11:45    US:ICSC-Goldman Store Sales Store Sales - W/W change 0%  
    Store Sales - Y/Y 0%  
12:30    US:Producer Price Index PPI - M/M change -0.3%  
    PPI less food & energy - M/M change 0.1%  
    PPI -Yr/Yr change 0%  
    PPI less food & energy - Yr/Yr change 0%  
12:30    US:Housing Starts Permits - Level - SAAR 0M  
    Starts - Level - SAAR 0.615M  
12:55    US:Redbook Store Sales Y/Y change 0%  
13:00    CA:Bank of Canada Announcement Change 0bp  
    Level 0.25%  

Full week Economic Calendar        

Hawkish RBA and Apple Earnings Send Dollar Lower
News and Events:
As anticipated, the RBA Minutes overnight were incredibly hawkish; highlighting further evidence of both global and domestic economic recovery, and signalling that more tightening was likely to come.

As EURUSD creeps ever closer to the psychologically important 1.5000 level (1.4970 at the time of writing), the next source of good supply doesn’t come into play until 1.5350.

Over 40 companies are reporting earnings out of the US today, including Coca Cola, Pfizer, State Street, Black Rock, UAL, Yahoo, and Northern Trust; but despite it being a very mixed bag of sectors, one really has to question whether a disappointing result is going to be enough to stem the declines in the USD from here.

Read Today's Key Issues and The Risk Today        



Resistance and Support:
EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY USDCHF
1.5590 1.6742 93.10 1.0250
1.5346 1.6570 92.50 1.0186
1.5000 1.6468 91.80 1.0123
1.4965 1.6405 90.35 1.0110
1.4876 1.6221 89.70 1.0037
1.4842 1.6127 88.59 1.0010
1.4720 1.6038 88.00 0.9889
S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot

 Tag : My, Journals | 17 Views | Post Comments | Share with Friends | Recommend

Friday,Oct 9 2009, 01:05:52 PMDaily Economic Calender

Demo|Live|Free Practice 
Daily Newsletter: 09/10/2009 
By Elizabeth Gregory - ACM Advanced Currency Markets, Geneva, Switzerland
Today's Economic Calendar:
 TIME (GMT)    EVENT  VALUE NAME   CONS.  
04:00    DE:CPI Month over Month -0.4%  
    Year over Year -0.3%  
06:00    DE:Merchandise Trade Level 12B  
06:45    FR:Industrial Production Month over Month 0.3%  
    Year over Year -13.3%  
08:00    IT:Industrial Production Month over Month 1.5%  
    Year over Year -17.7%  
08:30    GB:Producer Input Price Index Month over Month -0.9%  
    Year over Year -6.8%  
08:30    GB:POP Month over Month 0.1%  
    Year over Year -0.1%  
08:30    GB:Merchandise Trade Level Stg-6.3B  
11:00    CA:Employment Level Change 5000  
11:00    CA:Unemployment Rate Level 8.8%  
12:30    CA:Merchandise Trade Level -0.95B  
12:30    US:International Trade Trade Balance Level $-33B  

Full week Economic Calendar        

Dollar Regains Some Ground Ahead Of Earnings Next Week
News and Events:
The USD has clawed back some ground today; DXY is strongly off its 75.77 lows (last at 76.25), a development attributed to Bernanke comments that the Fed would be ready to tighten rates once the economy improves.

The USD weakness trade has paid off fantastically in the past week, and we would not be surprised if a little profit-taking were to come ahead of next week’s spate of major earnings releases.

The Q3 releases thus far have all been impressing to the upside, including aluminium giant Alcoa. If these early indicators are anything to go by, the USD could be in for further tough times ahead.

Norwegian CPI print of 0.8% MoM in Sep vs. expectations of 0.5% has once again underlined the likelihood of a Norges Bank hike in the upcoming 28 October meeting.

This afternoon the main item on the agenda will be Canadian Unemployment, which is expected to rise to 8.8% in Sep from 8.7% prior.

Read Today's Key Issues and The Risk Today        



Resistance and Support:
EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY USDCHF
1.5300 1.6235 91.10 1.0457
1.4876 1.6130 90.50 1.0425
1.4845 1.6040 89.85 1.0360
1.4730 1.5945 89.15 1.0315
1.4570 1.5815 88.00 1.0280
1.4510 1.5770 87.10 1.0235
1.4460 1.5724 81.85 1.0190
S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot

<<Previous 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Next >>
.. rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="http://skn.zorpia.com/4/skin4.css" /> http://bluefm.net/listen.pls