The Bush Administration steps up its secret moves against Iran.
by Seymour M.Hersh
July 7, 2008
Operations outside the knowledge and control of commanders have eroded “the coherence of military strategy,” one general says.
L
ate last year, Congress agreed to a request from President Bush to fund
a major escalation of covert operations against Iran, according to
current and former military, intelligence, and congressional sources.
These operations, for which the President sought up to four hundred
million dollars, were described in a Presidential Finding signed by
Bush, and are designed to destabilize the country’s religious
leadership. The covert activities involve support of the minority
Ahwazi Arab and Baluchi groups and other dissident organizations. They
also include gathering intelligence about Iran’s suspected
nuclear-weapons program.
Clandestine operations against Iran are
not new. United States Special Operations Forces have been conducting
cross-border operations from southern Iraq, with Presidential
authorization, since last year. These have included seizing members of
Al Quds, the commando arm of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, and
taking them to Iraq for interrogation, and the pursuit of “high-value
targets” in the President’s war on terror, who may be captured or
killed. But the scale and the scope of the operations in Iran, which
involve the Central Intelligence Agency and the Joint Special
Operations Command (JSOC), have now been
significantly expanded, according to the current and former officials.
Many of these activities are not specified in the new Finding, and some
congressional leaders have had serious questions about their nature.
Under federal law, a Presidential Finding, which is highly
classified, must be issued when a covert intelligence operation gets
under way and, at a minimum, must be made known to Democratic and
Republican leaders in the House and the Senate and to the ranking
members of their respective intelligence committees—the so-called Gang
of Eight. Money for the operation can then be reprogrammed from
previous appropriations, as needed, by the relevant congressional
committees, which also can be briefed.
“The Finding was focussed on undermining Iran’s nuclear ambitions
and trying to undermine the government through regime change,” a person
familiar with its contents said, and involved “working with opposition
groups and passing money.” The Finding provided for a whole new range
of activities in southern Iran and in the areas, in the east, where
Baluchi political opposition is strong, he said.
Although some legislators were troubled by aspects of the Finding,
and “there was a significant amount of high-level discussion” about it,
according to the source familiar with it, the funding for the
escalation was approved. In other words, some members of the Democratic
leadership—Congress has been under Democratic control since the 2006
elections—were willing, in secret, to go along with the Administration
in expanding covert activities directed at Iran, while the Party’s
presumptive candidate for President, Barack Obama, has said that he
favors direct talks and diplomacy.
The request for funding came in the same period in which the
Administration was coming to terms with a National Intelligence
Estimate, released in December, that concluded that Iran had halted its
work on nuclear weapons in 2003. The Administration downplayed the
significance of the N.I.E., and, while saying that it was committed to
diplomacy, continued to emphasize that urgent action was essential to
counter the Iranian nuclear threat. President Bush questioned the
N.I.E.’s conclusions, and senior national-security officials, including
Secretary of Defense Robert Gates and Secretary of State Condoleezza
Rice, made similar statements. (So did Senator John McCain, the
presumptive Republican Presidential nominee.) Meanwhile, the
Administration also revived charges that the Iranian leadership has
been involved in the killing of American soldiers in Iraq: both
directly, by dispatching commando units into Iraq, and indirectly, by
supplying materials used for roadside bombs and other lethal goods.
(There have been questions about the accuracy of the claims; the Times, among others, has reported that “significant uncertainties remain about the extent of that involvement.”)
Military and civilian leaders in the Pentagon share the White
House’s concern about Iran’s nuclear ambitions, but there is
disagreement about whether a military strike is the right solution.
Some Pentagon officials believe, as they have let Congress and the
media know, that bombing Iran is not a viable response to the
nuclear-proliferation issue, and that more diplomacy is necessary.
A Democratic senator told me that, late last year, in an
off-the-record lunch meeting, Secretary of Defense Gates met with the
Democratic caucus in the Senate. (Such meetings are held regularly.)
Gates warned of the consequences if the Bush Administration staged a
preëmptive strike on Iran, saying, as the senator recalled, “We’ll
create generations of jihadists, and our grandchildren will be battling
our enemies here in America.” Gates’s comments stunned the Democrats at
the lunch, and another senator asked whether Gates was speaking for
Bush and Vice-President Dick Cheney. Gates’s answer, the senator told
me, was “Let’s just say that I’m here speaking for myself.” (A
spokesman for Gates confirmed that he discussed the consequences of a
strike at the meeting, but would not address what he said, other than
to dispute the senator’s characterization.)
The Joint Chiefs of Staff, whose chairman is Admiral Mike Mullen,
were “pushing back very hard” against White House pressure to undertake
a military strike against Iran, the person familiar with the Finding
told me. Similarly, a Pentagon consultant who is involved in the war on
terror said that “at least ten senior flag and general officers,
including combatant commanders”—the four-star officers who direct
military operations around the world—“have weighed in on that issue.”
The most outspoken of those officers is Admiral William Fallon, who
until recently was the head of U.S. Central Command, and thus in charge
of American forces in Iraq and Afghanistan. In March, Fallon resigned
under pressure, after giving a series of interviews stating his
reservations about an armed attack on Iran. For example, late last year
he told the Financial Times that the “real objective” of U.S.
policy was to change the Iranians’ behavior, and that “attacking them
as a means to get to that spot strikes me as being not the first
choice.”
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Israeli leaders spent last week talking
tough about Iran and threatening possible military action. The United
States and the other major powers need to address Tehran’s nuclear
ambitions, but with more assertive diplomacy — including greater
financial pressures — not more threats or war planning.
The
Israeli prime minister, Ehud Olmert, who is bedeviled by a corruption
scandal that could drive him from office, led the charge. “The Iranian
threat must be stopped by all possible means,” he said in Washington, a
day before meeting President Bush at the White House.
Then
Israel’s transportation minister, Shaul Mofaz, who is jockeying to
replace Mr. Olmert as head of the ruling Kadima Party if the prime
minister is forced to resign, declared that an Israeli attack on
Iranian nuclear sites looks “unavoidable.”
We don’t know what’s
going on behind closed doors in Washington — or what Mr. Olmert heard
from Mr. Bush. But saber-rattling is not a strategy. And an attack on
Iran by either country would be disastrous.
Unlike in 1981,
when Israel destroyed Iraq’s nuclear reactor at Osirak, there is no
single target. A sustained bombing campaign would end up killing many
civilians and still might not cripple Iran’s nuclear program. Tehran
also has many frightening ways to retaliate. And even Arab states who
fear Iran shudder at the thought of America, or its ally Israel,
bombing another Muslim country and the backlash that that could
provoke.
Mr. Olmert may be trying to divert attention from his
political troubles. Still, there is no denying a growing and
understandable sense of urgency in Israel, which Iran’s president has
threatened with elimination. A recent report by United Nations
inspectors on Iran’s nuclear progress, and worrisome links to military
programs, has only fanned those fears.
Javier Solana, the
European Union’s foreign policy chief, is scheduled to visit Tehran
later this month to discuss, in more detail, an incentives package
first offered in 2006 by the United States and other major powers. It
is likely to fall far short — both in incentives and punishments — of
what is needed to get Tehran’s attention.
There is no
indication it will contain tougher sanctions — including a broader ban
on doing business with Iranian banks and bans on arms sales and new
investments. It also needs a stronger commitment from Washington to
lift sanctions and to fully engage Iran if it abandons its nuclear
efforts. The United States is the only major power not sending a
diplomat with Mr. Solana.
Senators Barack Obama and John McCain
disagree on holding direct talks with Iran (Mr. Obama would; Mr. McCain
would not). But last week, both endorsed enhanced sanctions, including
limiting gasoline exports to Iran. That is an idea well worth
exploring. Iran relies on a half-dozen companies for 40 percent of its
gasoline imports. The United Nations Security Council is unlikely to
authorize a squeeze, but quiet American and European appeals might
persuade some companies to slow deliveries, and it would grab Tehran’s
attention.
On his trip to Europe this week, President Bush is
expected to press the Europeans to further reduce Iran-related export
credits and cut ties with Iran’s financial institutions. He also must
make clear that America will do its part on incentives. We wish he had
the will and the skill to propose a grand bargain — and to send
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to deliver it. Unfortunately,
there’s no sign of that. At a minimum, he should send a senior official
with Mr. Solana to Tehran.
If sanctions and incentives cannot
be made to work, the voices arguing for military action will only get
louder. No matter what aides may be telling Mr. Bush and Mr. Olmert —
or what they may be telling each other — an attack on Iran would be a
disaster.
Admiral stresses he prefers diplomatic solution with Tehran
By Ann Scott Tyson |The Washington Post
April 26, 2008
WASHINGTON
— The nation's top military officer said Friday that the Pentagon is
planning for "potential military courses of action" against Iran,
criticizing what he called the Tehran government's "increasingly lethal
and malign influence" in Iraq.
Adm. Michael Mullen, chairman of
the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said a conflict with Iran would be
"extremely stressing" but not impossible for U.S. forces, pointing
specifically to reserve capabilities in the Navy and Air Force.
"It would be a mistake to think that we are out of combat capability," he said at a Pentagon news conference.
Still, Mullen made clear that he prefers a diplomatic solution to the
tensions with Iran and does not foresee any imminent military action.
"I have no expectations that we're going to get into a conflict with
Iran in the immediate future," he said.
Mullen's statements and
others by Defense Secretary Robert Gates recently signal a new
rhetorical onslaught by the Bush administration against Iran amid what
officials say is increased Iranian provision of weapons, training and
financing to Iraqi groups that are attacking and killing Americans.
In a speech Monday at West Point,
Gates said Iran "is hell-bent on acquiring nuclear weapons." He said a
war with Iran would be "disastrous on a number of levels. But the
military option must be kept on the table given the destabilizing
policies of the regime and the risks inherent in a future Iranian
nuclear threat."
Briefing expected
Army Gen. David Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Iraq who was
nominated this week to head all U.S. forces in the Middle East, is
preparing a briefing soon to lay out evidence of increased Iranian
involvement in Iraq, Mullen said. The briefing will detail, for
example, the discovery in Iraq of weapons that were very recently
manufactured in Iran, he said.
"The Iranian government pledged
to halt such activities some months ago. It's plainly obvious they have
not. Indeed, they seem to have gone the other way," Mullen said.
He said recent unrest in the southern Iraqi city of Basra had
highlighted a "level of involvement" by Iran that had not been
understood by the U.S. military previously. "It became very, very
visible in ways that we hadn't seen before," he said.
But while
Mullen and Gates have recently said that Tehran must know of Iranian
actions in Iraq, which they say are led by Iran's Revolutionary Guards,
Mullen said he has "no smoking gun which could prove that the highest
leadership [of Iran] is involved in this."
Incident Thursday
In
an incident early Thursday, a cargo ship contracted by the U.S.
military fired "several bursts" of warning shots at two fast boats that
approached in international waters off the Iranian coast, defense
officials said Friday.
The unidentified small boats approached
the Westward Venture, a ship carrying U.S. military hardware, as it
headed north through the central Persian Gulf about 8 a.m., said Cmdr.
Lydia Robertson, spokeswoman for the Navy's 5th Fleet, which is based
in Bahrain.
The U.S. ship initiated bridge-to-bridge
communications and, after receiving no response, fired a flare. The
speedboats continued to approach, so the ship fired warning shots with
a .50-caliber machine gun and M-16 rifle. The boats then left the area,
she said.
"They fired several bursts; it went pretty quickly," Robertson said.
Soon afterward, an Iranian coast guard boat queried the Western
Venture, Robertson said. It was unclear whether that was one of the
small boats.
"There have been some Iranian boats that have
operated this way and some unidentified boats," said Robertson, adding
that the crew had no voice communication with the small boats.
In January, five Iranian patrol boats sped toward a U.S. warship and
dropped small, boxlike objects into the water, an incident that alarmed
military officials and that President Bush
called a "provocative act." The objects turned out to pose no threat to
the USS Port Royal or two other U.S. vessels accompanying it.