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Technicals and News for Monday 24th
August |
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News and Events:EUR USD
Taking a look
at the big picture on EUR USD this morning, we can see that although the pair
has broken the 3 week downtrend, the bulls still have significant resistance at
1.4338 to contend with and unless it clears the level we will be looking at a
nice head and shoulders in development. Only a clearance of 1.4445 really
confirms a continuation of the uptrend and would be printing a 9 month high in
the process. For the short term expect rangebound action between 1.4338 and
1.4240, even as low as 1.4178 in order to build a base after last weeks break
out.
GBP USD
The pair is continuing to consolidate with problems
breaking 1.6587 to the upside and 1.6435 to the downside. 1.6381 still looks
like a good entry for the medium term longs but for now exepct continued
consolidation with 1.6663 as a major inflexion point. Failure below 1.6272
targets 1.5947
USD JPY
Unfortunately the long sweet spot at 93.00
never got touched as the pair went on a rally on the US open on Friday. The USD
bulls have taken the pair through the 2 week downtrend that we have been looking
at and is now looking to break through 94.80 /90 to keep the momentum going.
There is every chance that the pair will come back to test its breakout at 94.45
which will provide a good long entry for those who were patiently waiting for
the 93.00 area. Long term the trend is down with short and medium term
up.
USD CHF
Last week, we looked at the multi month descending
triangle pattern and it is now very important to pay attention to the short term
strength or weakness. The horizontal support of the triangle at 1.0556 has been
tested once more and if the SNB claim they are sitting on the sidelines then
someone else has replaced them as the pair has rallied off the support for nice
straight positive hours since the Asian open. Intraday reistance just in front
at 1.0632 and thereafter 1.0692.
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Resistance and Support:
| EURUSD |
GBPUSD |
USDJPY |
USDCHF |
| 1.4445 |
1.6665 |
97.50 |
1.0740 |
| 1.4380 |
1.6620 |
96.60 |
1.0692 |
| 1.4338 |
1.6550 |
95.40 |
1.0632 |
| 1.4307 |
1.6458 |
94.80 |
1.0622 |
| 1.4240 |
1.6435 |
93.85 |
1.0556 |
| 1.4180 |
1.6380 |
93.00 |
1.0452 |
| 1.4035 |
1.6272 |
92.15 |
1.0340 |
| S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P:
Pivot | |
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FT Article Prompts USD
Selling |
News and Events:The FT ran an opinion piece by
David Walker, the former comptroller general of the US , suggesting that the US
needs to take immediate action to steer clear of a downgrade in its AAA rating
(re-hashing the long-term critique of US public finances).
The knee jerk
reaction in the FX market lead to new highs in the EURUSD and AUDUSD. The EURUSD
traded up to 1.3722, while the AUDUSD has traded up to 0.7705.
The
markets are still debating the merits of the recent bright spots in economic
data. Heavy weights such as former Fed Chairman Greenspan are now arguing that
the US and global economy have in fact turned the corner.
Read Today's Key Issues and The Risk Today
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Resistance and Support:
| EURUSD |
GBPUSD |
USDJPY |
USDCHF |
| 1.3971 |
1.5456 |
99.56 |
1.1167 |
| 1.3832 |
1.5352 |
98.35 |
1.1133 |
| 1.3741 |
1.5300 |
97.99 |
1.1109 |
| 1.3658 |
1.5277 |
97.68 |
1.1048 |
| 1.3557 |
1.5186 |
97.14 |
1.0900 |
| 1.3507 |
1.5117 |
96.35 |
1.0865 |
| 1.3469 |
1.5074 |
95.64 |
1.0815 |
| S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P:
Pivot |
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Quick access to our 5 previous newsletters:
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Demo|Live|Free Practice Daily
Newsletter: 20/03/2009
By Loic Bondiguel - ACM Advanced Currency Markets, Geneva,
Switzerland |
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USD heads for records weekly loss versus Euro
as Supply rises |
News and Events:The USD remained the biggest
loser across the board yesterday following the Fed’s quantitative easing
announcement on last Wednesday.
The release of US economic data on
Thursday morning was not very optimistic either. Labor Department numbers were
mixed, but global sentiment of the results is decidedly disappointing. While
Initial Jobless Claims decreased by 12,000 to 646,000, Continuing Jobless Claims
rose drastically by 185,000 to 5,473,000 during the week ending March 7, the
highest since record keeping began in 1967.
With Japan enjoying a
national holiday, the Asian session was extremely subdued. EUR/USD and
GBP/USD edged down thanks to option related selling but both pairs slowly
recovered to be little changed at the time of writing. We hear reports of offers
just above 1.3700 with stops at 1.3760 while bids are reported near 1.3600 with
stops just below.
Read Today's Key Issues and The Risk Today
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Resistance and Support:
| EURUSD |
GBPUSD |
USDJPY |
USDCHF |
| 1.3965 S |
1.4875 S |
98.35 S |
1.1675 M |
| 1.3900 S |
1.4715 S |
96.60 S |
1.1545 K |
| 1.3795 M |
1.4665 S |
95.90 S |
1.1460 S |
| 1.3686 |
1.4540 |
94.52 |
1.1183 |
| 1.3415 S |
1.4335 |
93.40 M |
1.1085 M |
| 1.3325 M |
1.4165 M |
92.50 K |
1.0980 M |
| 1.3275 S |
1.4070 M |
91.90 S |
1.0900 S |
| S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P:
Pivot | |
Quick access to our 5 previous newsletters:
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Demo|Live|Free Practice Daily
Newsletter: 02/03/2009
By Peter Rosenstreich - ACM Advanced Currency Markets,
Geneva, Switzerland |
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Risk aversion as the primary theme in FX
markets this week |
News and Events:The weak US GDP data on
Friday, combined with disappointment over the EU summits rejection of a mass aid
package or CEE fund, has put pressure on risk appetite.
The greenback
should remain the main recipient of this elevated risk aversion environment, and
we see little in the near futures which would shift this outlook.
This
week is chocked with critical events, specifically from Central Banks. The RBA,
BoC, BoE and ECB should all be lowering rates.
Read Today's Key Issues and The Risk Today
|
Resistance and Support:
| EURUSD |
GBPUSD |
USDJPY |
USDCHF |
| 1.3095 M |
1.4515 S |
100.00 S |
1.1885 S |
| 1.2995 K |
1.4425 K |
99.50 K |
1.1830 M |
| 1.2750 M |
1.4385 M |
98.75 M |
1.1745 M |
| 1.2570 |
1.4264 |
97.49 |
1.1747 |
| 1.2514 M |
1.4111 S |
96.35 M |
1.1615 M |
| 1.2424 S |
1.4095 S |
95.30 M |
1.1530 K |
| 1.2330 K |
1.4050 M |
94.25 M |
1.1400 S |
| S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P:
Pivot | |
Quick access to our 5 previous newsletters:
| | | | |
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Demo|Live|Free
Practice Daily
Newsletter: 26/01/2009
By Loic Bondiguel - ACM Advanced Currency Markets, Geneva,
Switzerland |
|
|
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US Dollar strength hangs on Q4 GDP and FOMC
Decision releases this week |
News and Events:As expected, The UK was
confirmed last week as being officially in recession. The severity of the
slowdown took the market by surprise. Shrinking by 1.5% in the last quarter of
2008, the consequent sell off for the Pound was sharp. GBP/USD fell to just
above 1.3500, a 23 year low, while EUR/GBP rose to 0.9470.
The USD and
JPY continued to gain ground as investors searched for quality, though, by the
end of the day, the Dollar had given back much of it’s gains thanks to
expectations of a ‘spat’ between the US and China following Geithner’s comments
about Chinese currency manipulation.
Trading during Asian hours earlier
this morning was subdued due to the Chinese New Year celebrations which continue
all week. Compounding the general lack of interest was the fact that both
Australia and Singapore were enjoying days off as well.
Read Today's Key Issues and The Risk
Today
|
Resistance and Support:
| EURUSD |
GBPUSD |
USDJPY |
USDCHF |
| 1.3160 P |
1.4005 M |
90.80 S |
1.1740 S |
| 1.3065 S |
1.3900 S |
90.15 P |
1.1680 P |
| 1.2995 M |
1.3815 M |
89.80 M |
1.1640 S |
| 1.2938 |
1.3753 |
89.05 |
1.1605 |
| 1.2895 S |
1.3545 P |
88.35 S |
1.1580 S |
| 1.2835 S |
1.3400 M |
88.05 S |
1.1525 S |
| 1.2715 M |
1.3270 S |
87.10 M |
1.1460 M |
| S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P:
Pivot | |
Quick access to our 5 previous newsletters:
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